The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth, with average temperatures that have risen about 3°C (5°F) over the last half century. The increasing size and poleward shift of the Larsen calving events over the last 20-plus years would seem consistent with the warming effect of human-produced greenhouse gases. In fact, as noted by John Abraham, a 1978 paper by researcher John Mercer predicted this very thing: “One of the warning signs that a dangerous warming trend is under way in Antarctica will be the breakup of ice shelves on both coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula, starting with the northernmost and extending gradually southward.”
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